What happens when we take the "bias" out of the BCS?

Is that possible? Well, if by "bias' you mean the Harris and Coaches' polls, then, yes, it is. I'll demonstrate.

Right now there’s alot of smack talking going on. It’s online, around water coolers and in sports bars across America. Everyone thinks a certain team should be higher or lower in the BCS, or that some team is getting shafted somehow. Especially when you've got teams like Hawaii and Kansas who are both undefeated, and only one is getting BCS. Should Hawaii be ranked higher in the BCS? Should Kansas be lower?

Well, I’m not saying one way or the other, but I did find some interesting things when I started comparing the BCS poll with the numberical rankings systems it uses. You see, I love numbers and statistics. (StatMan...DUH!) I’ve always wondered what the seedings would look like if we went strictly by the numbers for bowl play. I’ve argued that because the BCS rankings take into consideration the Coaches and Harris polls (opinions) that it was tainted by bias, the media, and dumb people’s opinions. (LOL!)

So, what I did was sit down and take the “polls” out of the BCS to see what would happen when left with only the “rankings.” Before we go any further, I feel the need to quantify the difference between a “poll” and computer “rankings.” POLLS, are just what their names imply. You “poll” a hundred people, average the answers, and you get your results. RANKINGS, on the flip side, are based on mathematical calculations, margin of victory, wins and losses of opponents or strength of schedule, etc, etc. Many of these computer rankings get very complex and all of the systems are a little different. (Which may be why the BCS uses 6 different ones.) I should note that bookies in Vegas use systems like this to determine lines on games, who will win, blah, blah, blah. The BCS system uses 6 computer ranking systems and 2 polls.

I took the polls out, averaged the results of the rankings, and came up with what the BCS would look like (right now) with only the computer rankings remaining.

This chart shows:
- Teams according to their “bias-free” ranking (average)
- The 6 systems the BCS uses and where said team ranked in each
- The team’s average rank
- Their BCS ranking
- And, the difference between the two

So, what does this tell us? Looks like the big dogs, LSU and Kansas, are still on top. Nothing changing there. But, moving down the list you see teams that would move up a spot or two, or even four, and a couple that would drop substantially. (The positive moves are represented in blue. The teams now benefiting from the human element of opinion in the current system, who moved down, are indicated in red. Dashes indicate no move at all.)

The top five would now see Ohio State now AHEAD of West Virginia, who would be dead even with Arizona State in the #4 spot. This may, to some, confirm one of the alleged weaknesses of the BCS, which is, that teams who lose late in the season have a harder time climbing back up the rankings. Of course, I don’t think Missou fans would like this because it shows their tigers OUT of the top 5 now and dropping from #4 to #6.

Further down the list we see the big movers would be UConn, Cincinatti, and S. Florida, all moving up 4 spots, followed by Boston College moving up 3 spots. The big losers, though, would be Hawaii, dropping 8 spots to #23 and Boise State, dropping 6 spots to #25. Schedule strength (or lack of it) figures heavily into many of the rankings.

In conclusion, I was surprised that there were not even more differences in how the numbers played out. I was also suprised that Kansas stayed as high as they did. With a system that goes purely by the numbers, some would win and some would lose, but until the conference championship games are played, none of it matters anyway. Maybe I’ll spend another fours hours doing this again then, but that’s all for now.

Thanks for reading,
Mike Denham

P.S. If you want to do some of your own research or print something to help you fall asleep, check out these sites and sources:

How the BCS is Ranked: http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/standings
Wolfe Ratings: http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm#first
Colley Matrix: http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html
Sagarin Ratings: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm
Massey Ratings: http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&mid=6
Billingsly Report: http://www.cfrc.com/Ratings_2007/WK_13.htm
Anderson & Hester: http://www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html