What happens when we take the "bias" out of the BCS?

Is that possible? Well, if by "bias' you mean the Harris and Coaches' polls, then, yes, it is. I'll demonstrate.

Right now there’s alot of smack talking going on. It’s online, around water coolers and in sports bars across America. Everyone thinks a certain team should be higher or lower in the BCS, or that some team is getting shafted somehow. Especially when you've got teams like Hawaii and Kansas who are both undefeated, and only one is getting BCS. Should Hawaii be ranked higher in the BCS? Should Kansas be lower?

Well, I’m not saying one way or the other, but I did find some interesting things when I started comparing the BCS poll with the numberical rankings systems it uses. You see, I love numbers and statistics. (StatMan...DUH!) I’ve always wondered what the seedings would look like if we went strictly by the numbers for bowl play. I’ve argued that because the BCS rankings take into consideration the Coaches and Harris polls (opinions) that it was tainted by bias, the media, and dumb people’s opinions. (LOL!)

So, what I did was sit down and take the “polls” out of the BCS to see what would happen when left with only the “rankings.” Before we go any further, I feel the need to quantify the difference between a “poll” and computer “rankings.” POLLS, are just what their names imply. You “poll” a hundred people, average the answers, and you get your results. RANKINGS, on the flip side, are based on mathematical calculations, margin of victory, wins and losses of opponents or strength of schedule, etc, etc. Many of these computer rankings get very complex and all of the systems are a little different. (Which may be why the BCS uses 6 different ones.) I should note that bookies in Vegas use systems like this to determine lines on games, who will win, blah, blah, blah. The BCS system uses 6 computer ranking systems and 2 polls.

I took the polls out, averaged the results of the rankings, and came up with what the BCS would look like (right now) with only the computer rankings remaining.

This chart shows:
- Teams according to their “bias-free” ranking (average)
- The 6 systems the BCS uses and where said team ranked in each
- The team’s average rank
- Their BCS ranking
- And, the difference between the two

So, what does this tell us? Looks like the big dogs, LSU and Kansas, are still on top. Nothing changing there. But, moving down the list you see teams that would move up a spot or two, or even four, and a couple that would drop substantially. (The positive moves are represented in blue. The teams now benefiting from the human element of opinion in the current system, who moved down, are indicated in red. Dashes indicate no move at all.)

The top five would now see Ohio State now AHEAD of West Virginia, who would be dead even with Arizona State in the #4 spot. This may, to some, confirm one of the alleged weaknesses of the BCS, which is, that teams who lose late in the season have a harder time climbing back up the rankings. Of course, I don’t think Missou fans would like this because it shows their tigers OUT of the top 5 now and dropping from #4 to #6.

Further down the list we see the big movers would be UConn, Cincinatti, and S. Florida, all moving up 4 spots, followed by Boston College moving up 3 spots. The big losers, though, would be Hawaii, dropping 8 spots to #23 and Boise State, dropping 6 spots to #25. Schedule strength (or lack of it) figures heavily into many of the rankings.

In conclusion, I was surprised that there were not even more differences in how the numbers played out. I was also suprised that Kansas stayed as high as they did. With a system that goes purely by the numbers, some would win and some would lose, but until the conference championship games are played, none of it matters anyway. Maybe I’ll spend another fours hours doing this again then, but that’s all for now.

Thanks for reading,
Mike Denham

P.S. If you want to do some of your own research or print something to help you fall asleep, check out these sites and sources:

How the BCS is Ranked: http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/standings
Wolfe Ratings: http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm#first
Colley Matrix: http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html
Sagarin Ratings: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm
Massey Ratings: http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&mid=6
Billingsly Report: http://www.cfrc.com/Ratings_2007/WK_13.htm
Anderson & Hester: http://www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html

Sorority Girl Quotes v1.0

As some of you know, and many of you don't, in my sabatical from business development and sales (that means the division of the company I worked for went bye-bye) I have the very laborious and horrid job of photographing greek organizations on the LSU campus. Translation: I take pictures of sorority girls all day long. Yeah, poor me.

Well, I have been saying, since I started, that I was going to collect the things I have overheard and write a book. Well, I don't have enough for a book, but I do have a few zingers that are capable blog fodder.

Here goes:

1. "Yeah, she slept with, like, FOUR of those guys just because they're football players. And they don't even START!"
   
   
2. "OMG, I just found my keys! This guy called and found them on the handlebars of his motorbike! Remember? That was where we stopped when I had to pee so bad and I popped a squat in the parking lot by ____________'s apartment."
   
   
3. "She doesn't care about her MAJOR. She's just here to get her 'MRS.' That's why she hangs out with the nerds who'll make bank when they graduate."
   
   
4. "Damn, I was SOOOOO drunk. (whispering) Which one of those guys did I sleep with?"
   
   
5. To me: "We're having a party tomorrow night. You should come." (one of her friends) "He's got kids!" "You can bring your girls. We'll teach them how to do keg stands." I just laughed.

Well, that's it for today's installment. Tune in next time because I still have at least three more weeks to spend on campus. I'm sure there will be more, and as I remember some of the ones I said I would write down, I'll post them.

The pursuit of Happiness?

Do people today really pursue happiness? I don't think so. I think that, like love, people pursue what they THINK happiness is, and, therefore, never really achieve it. That applies to our personal lives more than anything else. (It also applies professionally as well, but that's another blog.)

So what is happiness? Well, I'm going to start with the authority, Mr. Webster. No, not Emmanuel Lewis, I'm talking about the guy who published the first dictionary. I digress.

In any case, if you look up "happiness," this is what you may find:

1.	the quality or state of being happy.

2.	good fortune; pleasure; contentment; joy.

I think most people that I come into contact with hold to the first definition, and possibly part of the second; the contentment part. Where people go wrong, though, is thinking that happiness means that state of being is going to be there 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. That's just wrong.

No one is perfectly happy 24/7, 365. To think that is even possible is absurd, and most people would agree, but it seems to be what a lot of people seem to want. People, at least in this country always want something else, something more, that "one more thing." If I just had _____________, I'd be happy.

I've come to realize that there is always something else. Human nature is to never be satisfied... to always want something else, something more. A better car, a better job, more money, more time, another child, bigger boobs or biceps. Everyone is after that "one thing" and THEN they will be "happy."

I think that in all of my nearly 35 years now, I am starting to realize that happiness is not external. It does not pertain to my significant other, my family, my friends, or any of my pursuits. It pertains to the way I see the world and myself. It is a choice, or maybe it's a determination. But it is either erroded or fortified with every challenge I face. THAT is my choice though.

A few years back I took a photographic assignment that found me in Honduras for 5 days in May. I was in the mountains which border Niceragua on the south-western side. The people who lived there, in the remote villages we visited, were very poor. So much so, that I told many people upon returning that my definition of the words "poverty" and "need" were forever changed. Back to the story.

The houses most of these people lived in were not built as well as dilapidated storage sheds are in rural America. They were crudely constructed shelters with one room, many times, and may have had up to a dozen people sleeping on the dirt floors. The people worked hard for pennies a day, and walked miles in some cases to access river water that they used to drink and cook with. And it wasn't very clean either.

You know what though? You could see in their eyes that they were happier than most Americans. You could see contentment and warm smiles. Of course there was pain when one of them walked 10 miles to bring a sick child to the only medical clinic within a 50 mile radius. But as a general rule, they were happy people.

As they slept in shacks and dressed in rags, they were happy. (See the picture above of one of the kids that followed me around one of the villages we visited.) As they worked 12 hours a day for pennies, they were happy. As they walked for miles to get water and lived without any of our modern luxuries, they were happy. What do you think they knew that we didn't?

They obviously knew that contentment and happiness had nothing to do with stuff or money or getting that "one thing." We would do well to take a lesson from them, realize how fortunate we are and enjoy life a little. There will always be "one more thing." Decide that life will go on. Maybe you should still pursue that thing. Maybe you shouldn't, but, life will go on in spite of it. I aim to enjoy my life in the meantime, and remind myself that life will happen. When it does, my happiness is in how I handle those happenings. ;)

M!ke D

For more pictures from my trip to Honduras, visit my MySpace photo album on the subject.